Israel carried out its first airstrike on Beirut in more than five months Sunday, killing Hezbollah’s top military commander in a strike that threatens to unravel a fragile ceasefire.
The attack targeted Haytham Ali Tabatabai in a densely populated southern suburb. At least five people died and 28 were wounded, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry.
Hezbollah confirmed Tabatabai’s death and warned the strike “opens the door to an escalation of assaults all over Lebanon.” The group now faces immense pressure to retaliate while weighing the risks of another devastating war.
The timing stunned observers. Just days earlier, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun announced Lebanon was ready for negotiations. The strike came almost exactly one year after a US-brokered ceasefire ended the 2024 war that killed over 4,000 people.
The target and the strike
Israeli forces hit an apartment building in Haret Hreik, a Hezbollah stronghold, without advance warning. Videos showed smoke billowing from the fourth floor as crowds gathered below.
Tabatabai had led Hezbollah’s military operations since November 2024. Israeli officials described him as central to rebuilding the group’s fighting capacity after last year’s devastating losses.
“He commanded most of Hezbollah’s units and worked hard to restore them to readiness for war with Israel,” the Israeli Defense Forces said in a statement.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu personally ordered the strike. His office said Israel acted “in the heart of Beirut” to stop Hezbollah’s rearmament efforts.
Defense Minister Israel Katz issued a blunt warning after the attack: “Anyone who raises a hand against Israel his hand will be cut off.”
Lebanese officials condemned the strike as a violation of sovereignty. President Aoun called for international intervention to “stop the attacks on Lebanon and its people.”
Hezbollah’s dilemma
At the strike site, Mahmoud Qamati, deputy chair of Hezbollah’s political council, told journalists the group was “studying the matter of response.”
His careful wording reflected Hezbollah’s difficult calculation. The group faces intense pressure from supporters to strike back. Yet any major retaliation would invite Israeli escalation that could devastate Lebanon further.
Under new Secretary-General Naim Qassem, Hezbollah has shown restraint since last November’s ceasefire. The group responded to Israeli attacks only once during that period.
“There is definitely a mood to strike back against the Israelis,” said one Lebanon-based analyst. “But they know very well that if they do, the Israelis will escalate.”
The 2024 war killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon and 127 in Israel. It caused $11 billion in damage and displaced hundreds of thousands. Few Lebanese want to risk repeating that catastrophe.
A pattern of violations
Sunday’s strike was dramatic but not isolated. Israel has killed more than 300 people in Lebanon since the November 2024 ceasefire, including around 127 civilians, according to UN figures.
Israeli forces continue occupying at least five positions in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire terms requiring full withdrawal.
Last Tuesday, an Israeli strike on the Ein el-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp near Sidon killed 13 people, mostly children. It marked the highest single-strike death toll since the ceasefire began.
Israel justified the attack by claiming it targeted a Hamas military facility. Hamas denied having any military presence in the crowded camp.
Israeli officials say continued strikes are necessary because Hezbollah is rebuilding military capabilities. They claim the group has smuggled arms and increased drone production near the border.
Lebanon’s government denies these claims and accuses Israel of systematic ceasefire violations. The dispute highlights the fundamental mistrust preventing lasting peace.
International pressure and local politics
Israel and the United States have pressured Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah and agree to direct negotiations with Israel.
President Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam say they’re committed to disarming all non-state actors. But implementing this faces enormous obstacles.
Hezbollah remains Lebanon’s most powerful military force. It commands deep loyalty among Shia communities and views its weapons as essential deterrence.
Many Lebanese oppose any direct contact with Israel. The issue remains deeply divisive domestically.
IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir warned after Sunday’s strike that Israel “will not allow the Hezbollah terror organization to grow stronger and rearm.”
“We may be required to return to combat in arenas in which we have already operated,” he said.
The wider context
Sunday’s attack reflects Israel’s determination to prevent Hezbollah from regaining strength.
Israeli strikes throughout 2024 hollowed out Hezbollah’s leadership. The September assassination of longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah represented the culmination of months of targeted killings.
Israel also detonated pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah members, killing dozens. The combined offensive left the organization militarily weakened.
But Hezbollah has proven resilient before. After the 2006 war, the group rebuilt to become more powerful than ever. Israeli officials clearly aim to prevent that pattern from repeating.
For Lebanon, the continuing violence compounds an already dire situation. The country faces economic collapse, political paralysis, and infrastructure devastation from previous conflicts.
More than 100,000 Lebanese remain displaced from border areas. Israeli border communities have also endured rocket fire, though on a much smaller scale.
Diplomatic complications
The strike’s timing particularly angered Lebanese officials. Just two days earlier, President Aoun announced readiness for negotiations to end cross-border hostilities.
“The Lebanese state is ready to negotiate under UN, US or joint international sponsorship,” Aoun said Friday.
Israel’s strike before any substantive talks could begin suggested to many Lebanese that Israel has little interest in genuine negotiations.
The attack also came days before Pope Leo XIV is scheduled to visit Lebanon on his first foreign trip. Israel’s willingness to strike despite the papal visit signals its determination to act regardless of diplomatic considerations.
The Vatican has not yet commented on whether the visit will proceed as scheduled.
The United Nations peacekeeping force has increased patrols along the Israel-Lebanon border. European Union envoys have called for restraint, though previous such appeals have gone largely unheeded.
What happens next
The coming days will reveal whether Sunday’s strike triggers renewed large-scale conflict.
Much depends on Hezbollah’s response. A limited, symbolic retaliation might allow both sides to de-escalate. But pressure within Hezbollah for substantial action could trigger the cycle of violence both sides claim they want to avoid.
US officials privately warned Israel that prolonged escalation could draw in regional powers and derail broader security negotiations. Yet American leverage appears limited.
Israel’s government has repeatedly demonstrated willingness to act unilaterally on security matters it deems existential.
For ordinary Lebanese, Sunday’s strike brought back traumatic memories of last year’s war. The prospect of renewed conflict fills many with dread, particularly in southern Lebanon where damage from previous fighting remains unrepaired.
“Every attack on Lebanon is a crossing of a red line,” said Hezbollah MP Ali Ammar at the strike site. “This aggression targets Lebanon’s dignity, sovereignty, and the security of its citizens.”
Whether diplomatic efforts can contain the current escalation or whether the region slides toward another devastating war will depend on decisions made in Beirut, Jerusalem, and Washington over the coming days.
The numbers that matter
Sunday’s casualties: 5 killed, 28 wounded
Lebanese deaths since ceasefire: Over 300 (including 127 civilians)
2024 war toll: 4,000+ in Lebanon, 127 in Israel
Economic damage: $11 billion (World Bank)
Months of relative calm: 5 (June-November 2025)
Lebanese displaced: Over 100,000
Israeli positions in Lebanon: At least 5 (violating ceasefire terms)
Days until Pope’s visit: Scheduled within days
The uncertain path forward
The Beirut strike has shattered months of fragile calm. Both sides now face critical choices.
Israel must decide whether eliminating individual commanders justifies risking wider war. The Netanyahu government appears willing to accept that risk, betting that Hezbollah won’t dare retaliate significantly.
Hezbollah must balance internal pressure to respond forcefully against the catastrophic consequences of another full-scale conflict. The group’s new leadership under Qassem faces its first major test.
Lebanon’s government, meanwhile, remains largely powerless to prevent either side from dragging the country into renewed devastation.
The ceasefire agreement, already badly frayed, may not survive much longer. Both sides continue preparing for potential renewed conflict while civilians on both sides of the border live with constant fear. One thing is certain: the fragile peace that has held since November 2024 looks more precarious than ever. Whether it collapses entirely or somehow survives this latest crisis will shape the Middle East for years to come.
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