The last tanker left La Guaira port on January 3rd, its hull riding low in the water with 800,000 barrels of crude bound for Havana’s Ñico López refinery. The crew didn’t know it was the final shipment. Neither did the refinery operators who needed that oil to keep Havana’s lights on for another three weeks. By the time the tanker reached Cuban waters on January 7th, Nicolás Maduro was in U.S. custody and the decades-long oil lifeline between Caracas and Havana was severed. The lights in Havana started flickering two days later. By Sunday, when President Trump posted “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!” in signature all-caps, Cuban households were already rationing candles and the government was calculating how many weeks until total grid collapse.
Fresh off capturing Nicolás Maduro, President Trump turned his attention to Cuba on Sunday with a blunt ultimatum: make a deal with Washington or face economic collapse now that Venezuelan oil shipments have permanently ended. The threat targets Cuba’s deepest vulnerability, a dependence on roughly 27,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude that keeps the island’s power grid and transportation functioning. Trump’s message reveals how the Venezuela operation was never just about Caracas. It was the opening move in a broader strategy to force regime change in Havana by weaponizing the one resource Cuba cannot survive without.
President Donald Trump issued his ultimatum via Truth Social on Sunday, January 11, 2026, declaring that Venezuela’s oil-for-security arrangement with Cuba is permanently finished. He urged the island nation to strike a deal with the United States “BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.”
Trump’s message was explicit. “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!” he wrote. He claimed Cuba had “lived” on Venezuelan subsidies for decades in exchange for providing “Security Services” to what he termed “dictators.” Trump asserted that the recent U.S. operation in Caracas neutralized much of Cuba’s regional influence. “Most of those Cubans [security personnel] are DEAD from last weeks U.S.A. attack,” he claimed, adding that Venezuela is now under “protection of the United States.” In a signal of regime change intent, Trump reposted a message suggesting Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, could become the next leader of Cuba, adding “Sounds good to me!”
The loss of Venezuelan oil represents an existential threat to the Cuban state. Historically, Havana has relied on Venezuela for roughly 50% of its oil deficit, receiving an average of 27,000 barrels per day to keep its power grid and transportation systems functioning. With no tankers departing Venezuelan ports for Havana since Maduro’s capture, Cuba is facing severe blackouts and food shortages. The Cuban government recently reported that U.S. sanctions had already cost the country over $7.5 billion in just the last year. While U.S. intelligence assessments suggest Cuba is “severely strained,” they have not confirmed Trump’s public prediction that the island is “ready to fall.”
Havana’s reaction was swift and defiant. President Miguel Díaz-Canel took to X to slam the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and the threats against his own nation. “Cuba is a free, independent, and sovereign nation. No one dictates what we do,” Díaz-Canel wrote. He described the U.S. operation in Venezuela as “state terrorism” and a “shocking violation of international law.” Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez denied that Cuba received monetary compensation for security services, calling the U.S. an “unchecked hegemon” that behaves in a “criminal” manner.
The ultimatum coincides with reports that the Trump administration is finalizing a $2 billion deal with Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodríguez to send up to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S. instead of traditional regional partners. White House officials have not elaborated on what “deal” Trump expects from Cuba, but analysts suggest it likely involves total removal of Cuban intelligence from Venezuela, release of political prisoners, and a path toward democratic elections in Havana. As Rubio stated Sunday: “The Cuban government is a huge problem… if I lived in Havana, I would be concerned.”
Trump didn’t just cut off Cuba’s oil supply. He scheduled the island’s blackout and then offered to sell them the candles, except the price is regime change and the candles are Marco Rubio running Havana. The Venezuela operation was never the endgame. It was infrastructure removal for what comes next. Cuba can call it state terrorism and violation of international law all it wants, but the power grid doesn’t run on defiant tweets and the refinery needs 27,000 barrels per day that aren’t coming anymore. Havana has until the fuel reserves run dry to decide whether sovereignty means starving in the dark or making whatever deal Trump dictates. The last tanker already left port. The lights are already flickering. The ultimatum isn’t a threat. It’s a countdown.
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